Latest News & Insights
The May contract expired mildly higher on Tuesday to settle at $2.559. June took over and traded lower to start but rallied a bit as the week went on to close out Friday at $2.78, a gain over 3.6%. The summer was up 2.7% and the one- and two-year strips were up 1.6% and 1%, respectively.
The market has been largely trading sideways on mixed fundamentals. The EIA posted an injection of 79 Bcf, generally in line with expectations, but inventories are ahead of both the one- and five-year averages. Both LNG exports and production are off their highs, but that's largely due to seasonal maintenance. The weather has generally been a bit bearish but warmer temperatures are blanketing the West in upcoming forecasts. Crude topped the $100 mark again as tensions continue in the Middle East. Please reach out with any questions.
March Market Report
The April contract settled and expired on Friday at $3.095, which was unchanged week over week, but not after taking a wild ride to get there. The balance of the curve wasweaker overall.
The markets fell hard early in the week on expectations that the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were easing. However, as the week progressed, attacks continued andagreement on a peace plan appeared to be more distant than originally thought. On the fundamental side, a higher than anticipated storage withdrawal of 54 Bcf provided supportas well. Warmer than normal temperatures blanket both East and West coasts, with normal to cooler weather in between.
February Market Report
Volatility reigned again this past week, with cash prices surging, in some areas to nearly $200, as brutal arctic air blanketed much of the country. The February contract surged two out of its three final days, expiring Wednesday at $7.46, over 40% higher in that short time. March was up 20% for the week, closing on Friday at $4.354, with the back of the curve rising as well.
The Central "polar vortex" (Fern) and now an Eastern "bomb cyclone" (Gianna) are the primary reasons, but cold temperatures continue to linger in the East a bit longer. The EIA posted a 242 Bcf draw from inventories, but expectations for potentially the largest withdrawal in history await traders this week. Production has struggled due to the weather as well, but that was largely offset by reduced LNG exports - both have now resumed back to earlier levels.
The market is off a bit to start this morning as traders assess what comes next.
January Market Report
It was a bit of a wild ride with the holiday timing the past couple of weeks. The January contract expired last Monday after a strong rally, closing out at $4.687, a one-day gain ofover 7%. Meanwhile the February contract slipped as the new prompt, settling on Friday at $3.618, pulling down the winter and the back of the curve with it.
The odd holiday mid-week timing provided for two storage reports last week - one, a strong draw of 166 Bcf, and the second, only 38 Bcf. The weather patterns are tricky, with thetop half of the U.S. experiencing some "polar vortex" type effects, with the lower half seeing warmer temperatures - some suggest a typical "La Nina" pattern, which appears to bepanning out in the latest forecasts. Production is strong, but LNG exports are on the rise again.